NATO expansion did not cause Russia's 2022 invasion in a single causal sense, but it contributed significantly to escalation by exercising multiple, intersecting forms of power that shaped the conditions under which conflict became highly probable. An analysis of realist security imperatives, brinkmanship dynamics, and dangerous ambiguity about Western commitments.
Classical deterrence theory developed during Cold War bipolarity now faces nine nuclear-armed states. This essay argues that deterrence theory retains conceptual utility for understanding bilateral nuclear relationships but faces severe operational limitations in a multipolar context. Extended deterrence credibility collapses when commitment chains multiply faster than credible response capabilities can sustain.
Why did al-Qaida in Waziristan invest heavily in local legitimacy while U.S. forces achieved effectiveness without it? This essay argues that the debate reveals a fundamental asymmetry: nonstate actors remain constrained by legitimacy requirements while technologically advanced states can bypass them entirely through high legibility and speed-of-exploitation systems.